11/27/2023 0 Comments Failed mouse utopia experimentOne of the primary culprits for causing a population decline is urbanization, the process of people moving into and living in cities. Many have speculated as to why there has been such a large population drop over the past 50-70 years across the whole world, with a wide range of suggestions being presented. By then China’s population will have a demographic look similar to ultra-old Japan’s today - but without the affluence of its Asian neighbor.“ By 2050 China’s population will shrink 2.5%, a loss of 28 million people. Today the estimates of the country’s fertility rate run from 1.2 to 1.6, both well below the 2.1 replacement rate. Until a generation ago, overpopulation threatened China’s future, as it still does some developing countries. By 2030, according to the United Nations, Japan will have more people over 80 than under 15.īut the biggest hit on the world economy from the new demographics will come from China, the planet’s second largest economy, and the most dynamic. The decline of Japan’s population is perhaps best known the great island nation, still the world’s third largest economy, is expected to see its population fall 15% by 2050, the second steepest decline after Ukraine, and get much older. The big story in demographic trends is in Asia, which has driven global economic growth for the past generation. Europe is gradually diminishing in global importance. If this were just a European disease, it would not prove such a challenge to the economic future. Things are not that much better in Western Europe, where fertility rates are also below replacement rates, but not quite so low.” Each of these have below replacement rate fertility. Among the 10 smaller countries with the greatest population declines, all are in Europe, and outside Western Europe, with Bulgaria’s population expected to shrink 27% by 2050 and Romania’s 22%. Although too small to reach our 20 million person threshold, many of Europe’s tinier “frontier” countries have abysmal fertility rates. “ Nor can Europe expect much help from its smaller countries. The population of the EU is expected to peak by 2050 and then gradually decline, suggesting a dim future for that body even if it holds together. Eastern and Southern Europe are home to several important downsizing countries including Poland (off 14% by 2050), the Russian Federation (-10.4%), Italy (-5.5%) and Spain (-2.8%). projections, Ukraine’s population will fall 22% by 2050. Here are some projected numbers of how much some European countries will decline over the next generation: Some research indicates that about half of the world’s population is replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. All across the industrialized and many industrializing nations there has been a significant drop in the fertility of women.
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